In a statement, the Financial Observatory of Economists assesses the 2% growth of the economy in 2019 driven by the 0.5% increase in GDP in the last quarter Email List of the year and highlights that it is a "vigorous and superior" growth. to that of the surrounding economies.
"It represents a positive traction factor in the face of the unknowns of the new year ," emphasize the economists who in turn warn that there are international uncertainties such as Brexit or even the pandemic caused by the coronavirus in China, which could negatively impact tourism and trade.
However, he highlights that the approval of the Budgets for 2020, the control of the public deficit - which could have closed 2019 at 2.5% of GDP - and tackling the deficit of the pension system are " key" factors.
The forecast of the General Council of Economists is that GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2020 and the same in 2021, and that consumption will increase by 1.1% this year and 1.4% next year.
Exports would grow by 2.5% and 3%, respectively in these two years, and the unemployment rate would be around 13% in 2020 and would drop to 12% in 2021.
The Observatory points out that home sales are beginning to suffer, although the main threat is lower employment growth, "something that will continue to occur throughout the year and that could affect consumption and demand."
Regarding the inflation rate, which according to advance data from the INE would have grown by 1.1% in January, compared to 0.8% in December, due to the increase in electricity and food and non-alcoholic beverages, the Council of Economists expects to end this year at 1.1% and at 1.5% next year. "The slowdown in the economy expected for the first half of 2020 and the ECB's monetary policy of zero interest rates will not help the CPI significantly exceed 1% ," he points out.